- energy
- employment
- MINDSET
- GLORIA
- macroeconomics
- research
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Anatomy of a Global Energy Price Shock: How the Scenario Was Built
Not every country faces the same energy shock. We unpack the country-level petroleum and natural gas price increases used in our MINDSET scenario and trace what they produce in terms of output loss — showing how World Bank region, income level, and oil trade position shape the hit at every stage.
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Who Pays for a Global Energy Crisis? 2.69 Trillion Dollars in Gross Output Lost
A global petroleum price shock eliminates 2.69 trillion dollars in gross output — but the burden is distributed in ways that frequently defy first intuition. Using MINDSET, we trace the full geography of output loss across six World Bank regions and 120 sectors.
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24 Million Jobs at Risk: Employment Effects of a Global Energy Price Shock
The same petroleum price shock that eliminates 2.69 trillion dollars in output erases 24.6 million jobs — but employment falls at roughly half the rate of output, opening a critical policy window. We trace the disequilibrium dynamics, regional distribution, and sectoral anatomy of the employment shock.